A year without winter? Dream
No, winter has not been canceled. Delayed a few weeks? Yes. I vaguely remember dreaming of a year without winter in Minnesota: 30 and 40, no actual snow, just rain and ice. This scenario is unlikely until the middle of the century, and hopefully never will happen if we take seriously reducing greenhouse gases that warm the climate.
But we know more (unprecedented) “Black Swan” weather extremes, and we don’t know all the tipping points yet. Expect the unexpected. The ’70s continue this week, with an outside shot at 80F on Saturday, before cooling off into the’ 60s next week. I see a few slugs of cold air in the second half of October, but the general trend seems to favor cold and stormy weather in the west, with a (forgive me) “slight bias” from the plains to the east coast for the coming weeks.
Scattered fog will form each night, with an increasing likelihood of showers and T-shaped thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.
The pattern slowly tends to get wetter over time, but we could talk about drought until 2022. For now, take advantage of lukewarm days.
Sweet in the weekend with a growing threat of thunder. Which month is it again? It’s more like mid-September, with 70s at least on Saturday. A parasitic downpour is possible by Thursday and Friday with widespread T storms over central and northern Minnesota on Saturday and lighter showers behind a cool front on Sunday.
Oversized Fall. The latest GFS forecast shows continued ridge formation over the plains and central United States, suggesting that relatively mild weather conditions could continue until the third week of October east of the Rockies. No sustained flight of cold air in sight – yet.
Scientists drove a robotic surfboard into Hurricane Sam, and the waves were amazing. Capital Weather Gang has a crazy story: “Scientists from Saildrone and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration managed to ram a robotic surfboard into the heart of Category 4 Hurricane Sam on Thursday, as part of a one-of-a-kind science mission as they attempt better understand hurricanes. The video, captured just northeast of Hurricane Sam’s monstrous eye, shows an eerily dark sky, howling winds and a thick veil of spray and mist rising into the air. Huge waves can be seen swaying the probe like a pendulum. Saildrone is a company that manufactures probes that collect ocean data for use in environmental studies… “
The AI can predict if it will rain in two hours. It’s not there (yet) but the short-term forecast (“Nowcasting”) of precipitation is improving, as described to BBC News: “Scientists from the Google-owned London AI lab DeepMind and the University of Exeter partnered with the Met Office to create the nowcasting system. Traditional methods use complex equations and often only allow between six hours and two weeks. The AI system can make more accurate short-term forecasts, including for critical storms and floods. Climate change makes it harder to anticipate adverse weather conditions, as the frequency and severity of heavy rains increase, which researchers say will result in both significant property damage and death.… “
8 of the biggest tsunamis in history. Proving that earthquakes and water don’t mix, Mental Floss has a telling list: “More tsunamis go unnoticed. Defined as a wave caused by a disturbance like a earthquake, landslide or volcanic eruption, tsunamis often reach a few centimeters in height, depending on NOAA. But when the triggering event is strong enough, the results can be disastrous. The strongest tsunamis move as fast as planes across the open ocean and grow as high as skyscrapers. When they reach land they can decimate entire cities in a few minutes. The tsunamis on this list aren’t necessarily the deadliest or most destructive, but they do dominate one category: sheer magnitude. here are the the biggest megatsunamis never recorded… “
America’s rivers need help. I should know – I swam 108 of them this summer. Cue a gag reflex, but it made me appreciate Minnesota’s relatively clean lakes. Here is an excerpt from a Washington Post editorial: “…As a conservation biologist, I have spent years working to increase the protection of rivers, particularly in the Southeastern United States. With more species of freshwater mussels and crayfish than anywhere else in the world, the rivers are renowned for their biodiversity. This summer I decided that I would do my best to win the river swimming challenge and explore rivers beyond my previous haunts. From my home near the Cumberland River in Kentucky, I traveled through eight states, from southern Pennsylvania to northern Georgia, west to the Mississippi River on the Missouri border, and east to ‘at the Shenandoah River. I have swam in state and municipal parks, national forests, wildlife management areas, and private lands with public access sites... “
What science knows about the risk of Covid-19 transmission in airplanes. Some useful tips for future vacation trips via the Wall Street Journal: “Airmen have longed for reliable data on the risks of air travel since the start of the pandemic. Recent research into the transmission of Covid-19 on flights suggests that airlines may adopt new policies to better protect their passengers. Scientists have seen a large increase in the possible spread of in-flight meal service when everyone is wearing their masks. They also learned more about the importance of precautions when embarking and disembarking. The chances of viral spread on planes remain very low. But articles published in medical journals suggest they may not be as low as suggested earlier in the pandemic… “
Apple’s Fortress of Secrecy is collapsing from within. Blame (or thank) Slack and social media, as described in The Verge: “..It was the first time, however, that Apple employees had joined the fight: openly pushing back the decisions – or non-decisions – of the company’s management. Apple has historically dissuaded employees from talking about their work on social media, even in seemingly harmless ways. The company’s guidelines are vague: “Be aware of how you present yourself on social media online,” they read. “The lines between public and private, and personal and professional, are blurred in online social networks. In particular, it is a priority that we respect the privacy of our customers and other employees... “
73 F. Twin cities high temperature Monday.
65 F. Medium high MSP on October 4th.
56 F. top October 4, 2020.
October 5, 1963: Heat wave hits part of Minnesota with highs of 98 in Beardsley, 96 in Madison and 94 in Elbow Lake.
TUESDAY: Warm sun. Winds: SE 5-10. High: 75
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and mild. Winds: SE 7-12. Alarm clock: 56. High: 74
THURSDAY: More clouds, intermittent downpours. Winds: SE 8-13. Awakening: 60. High: 73
FRIDAY: Destabilized, a few T-showers nearby. Winds: SE 5-10. Awakening: 62. High: 72
SATURDAY: Hot sun, thunderstorms T in the north. Winds: SE 10-20. Alarm clock: 63. High: close to 80
SUNDAY: Windy and cool, a few showers. Winds: W 15-25. Awakening: 60. High: 72
MONDAY: A little sun, average temperatures. Winds: N 7-12. Awakening: 47. High: 67
Climate stories …
The cost of living near the shore is already high. It’s about to go through the roof. The Washington Post (paywall) highlights price changes for coastal flooding that more accurately reflect the real risk in a changing climate: “…The Garys had joined 8 million Americans who moved to counties along the US coast between 2000 and 2017, drawn to the sun, the sea, and heavily subsidized government flood insurance that made the cost of protecting their homes much cheaper, despite the risk of living in a flood zone near a large body of water. But an account is coming. Friday, the Federal Emergency Management Agency incorporating climate risk into the cost of flood insurance for the first time, dramatically increasing the price for some new home buyers. Next April, most current policyholders will see their premiums increase and continue to increase by 18% per year for the next 20 years.… “
Climate link has more perspective and links: “FEMA’s New Flood Insurance Plan Charts the Battle Lines on Climate Adaptation (Grist), owners face new risks and costs (Axes, the Wall Street newspaper $), the overhaul of flood insurance aims for fairer rates (AP, explanation), the overhaul of flood insurance begins today, despite opposition (E&E $), the price of living near the shore is already high. It’s about to go through the roof. “(Washington Post $, CBS)
The Earth is darkening due to climate change. New research highlighted on Phys.org caught my attention: “Warming ocean waters have caused the Earth’s luminosity to drop, according to a new study. The researchers used decades of measurements of the Earth’s brightness – the light reflected from the Earth that illuminates the surface of the Moon – as well as satellite measurements to find that there has been a significant drop in reflectance. from Earth, or albedo, over the past two decades. Earth now reflects about half a watt less light per square meter than it did 20 years ago, with most of the declines occurring in the past three years of Earth’s luster data, new study finds from the journal AGU Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact short reports with immediate implications covering all earth and space sciences… “
The country that makes breakfast for the world is in the grip of fire, frost and drought. Bloomberg Green has details, listen: “Brazil’s crops were burned, frozen and then dried up by the worst drought in a century, disrupting global commodity markets. orange juice jumped 20% in three weeks; and sugar peaked in four years in August. Soaring prices are contributing to soaring international food inflation – a UN index has jumped 33% in the past 12 months – which is exacerbating financial hardship from the pandemic and forcing millions of families into low income reduce their grocery shopping around the world... “