Above normal rain in peninsular India likely in November | Latest India News


Precipitation in November is expected to be above normal (> 122% of LPA) in the southern peninsula of India, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The LPA (50 Year Average Long Period of Precipitation) in the region in November from 1961 to 2010 was approximately 117.46 mm.

Forecasts of spatial distribution suggest normal to above normal precipitation over most parts of the southern peninsula of India. Below normal to normal precipitation is likely over parts of northern, northwestern and central India. Normal to above normal precipitation is very likely in other parts of the country, IMD said on Tuesday.

Currently, La Niña conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean Neutral Dipole (IOD) conditions over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecast from the global model indicates that La Niña conditions are expected to continue through March 2022 and neutral IOD conditions in the coming seasons, IMD said. Normally, during La Nina conditions, precipitation is normal or below normal during the northeast monsoon in southern peninsular India. But this time around, precipitation is expected to be above normal due to the favorable location of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). “MJO is near Africa now. It will head towards the Indian Ocean. With this, the hurricane potential will be more in the Indian Ocean region and the easterly waves will strengthen. Therefore, we expect above normal rains on the southern peninsula, ”said DS Pai, who heads climate research and services at IMD, Pune.

Due to the impact of La Nina, minimum and maximum temperatures are likely to be considerably lower than normal (1 to 2 degrees) in most parts of the country, including northwest India . “Our larger-scale forecast shows below normal temperatures in most parts of the country,” Pai said.

La Ni̱a refers to the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, associated with changes in tropical atmospheric circulation Рwinds, pressure, and precipitation. It usually has opposite impacts on weather and climate like El Ni̱o, which is the warm phase of what is known as the El Ni̱o Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Also Read: Delhi AQI To Hover Around 300 In Next Days, According To IMD

ENSO has a major influence on weather and climatic conditions such as heavy rains, floods and drought. In India, El Niño is associated with drought or a weak monsoon. La Nina is associated with a strong monsoon, above-average rains and colder winters.

The MJO is an easterly moving disturbance of cloud, precipitation, winds and pressure that traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its original starting point in an average of 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Its location and amplitude strongly modulate the intensity of tropical convection and features such as low pressure systems over the northern Indian Ocean.

Changes in sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to influence the Indian climate. IMD is carefully monitoring changing sea surface conditions over these ocean basins, he said.


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