After a bleak start, the holiday weekend weather outlook brightens in the Berkshires | Time

Half a weekend of good holiday weather is better than nothing.

After a potentially stormy start, things are expected to clear up on Sunday and Monday, with ideal conditions for the range of outdoor activities – from ceremonies honoring those who have died in military service to backyard barbecues.

On Saturday, look for a risk of severe thunderstorms with heavy showers and isolated flash flooding before the leading edge of drier air passes by mid-afternoon. Beyond sunset, cooler, refreshing air on westerly breezes will promote clear skies and lower humidity. A comfortable night is expected, with lows near 50.

The Albany National Weather Service predicts Sunday will be “a beautiful day with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures.” Highs should range from 75 to 80 with humidity remaining low.

Monday will be a repeat performance, although temperatures can climb into the low 80s, with mostly clear skies and moderate humidity. The only change for Tuesday will be increased heat, with mid to upper 80s expected – perfect for lake and riverside fun. Clouds roll in on Wednesday with showers possible through Thursday, followed by a chill.

The extended forecast for next weekend looks sunny and pleasantly warm. The outlook for June 5-10 looks promising, with near-normal temperatures and precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

NATIONAL OVERVIEW

This weekend, extreme weather is forecast for the northern plains, while critical fire weather issues persist across much of the southwest and southern Rockies.

A moist and unstable air mass is expected to produce numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states over the holiday weekend.

Much cooler temperatures are expected in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies with locally abundant precipitation. Sufficient cold air is expected Saturday night and Sunday for heavy snowfall over parts of the northern Rockies, including some higher peaks in northwestern Wyoming, southwestern Montana and central Idaho .

Beneficial rains will spread over parts of the northern high plains, but thunderstorms can produce large hail and damaging winds.

Hot, dry conditions will cover the central and southern plains with highs well into the 90s. Wildfire danger will encompass a fairly large area from the southern Rockies through much of the southwest. Very low humidity, locally warm temperatures and gusty winds will result in a high threat of wildfire activity.

Florida can expect scattered thunderstorms by the middle of the week, becoming more widespread around next weekend. South Florida will be mostly sunny in the low to mid 80s, with the best chance of storms Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday. The Gulf Coast will be near 90, with possible thunderstorms Wednesday and Friday.

Still no rain for Southern California – sunshine with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s all week, while Northern California remains dry, with daytime temperatures in the 60s.

CLIMATE OVERVIEW

For the seventh consecutive hurricane season, the number and intensity of storms are expected to be above historical averages, with climate change a factor due to overheating of ocean waters linked to human influences.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s seasonal forecast calls for 14 to 21 named storms, including three to six major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher on the five-point intensity scale.

Category 3 or higher storms usually cause significant damage due to winds and rising waters. Typically, major hurricanes gain strength quickly, with only limited notice to residents along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

Last year’s season included 21 named storms, The Washington Post reported. It is the third highest. In 2020, a record 30 named storms formed. The two seasons combined produced the most storms on record in the United States

The country has also seen more Category 4 and 5 hurricanes from 2017 to 2021 than from 1963 to 2016.

Because Hurricane Ida last August was so severe from the Gulf Coast to the northeast, where there was record flooding, the World Meteorological Organization removed Ida from the rotating list of names of hurricanes. The storm claimed 96 lives from Louisiana to Connecticut and was blamed for $75 billion in damage, the fifth costliest hurricane on record.

According to researchers at Colorado State University, hurricane forecasts released in the spring have become considerably more reliable over the past decade after not showing much accuracy from the 1980s to around 2013.

NOAA predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Colorado State University expects 19 named storms, with a 71% chance the United States will be hit by a major hurricane. AccuWeather predicts 16-20 named storms.

“NOAA will triple its operational supercomputing capability this summer,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. “This upgrade will enable higher resolution Earth models capable of handling larger model ensembles with more computations, more advanced physics considerations, and a more advanced ability to assimilate data collected during the storm.”

Hurricanes are heat engines, extracting heat energy from “ocean heat content”. A larger, deeper reservoir of exceptionally warm ocean water means more fuel to generate or sustain a hurricane. Water temperatures throughout the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic are 1 to 3 degrees above average. Unusually warm water increases the “potential intensity,” or theoretical maximum strength, that a hurricane can achieve.

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