Below normal tropical cyclone activity is expected in the region for the rest of the year.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 2022 Tropical Cyclone Outlook update, Guam, Rota, Saipan and Tinian could be affected by two or three named storms, those that reach at least tropical storm status with winds of 39 mph. or more. One or two could be typhoons with winds of 74 mph or more. We could be a major storm.
The outlook covers Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia and the Marshall Islands. This is a general guide to overall tropical cyclone activity across Micronesia and does not indicate how many systems will actually make landfall.
However, the outlook gives a general idea of the number of tropical storms and typhoons that could affect a specific island or group of islands across Micronesia, with strong and damaging winds, heavy rains and storm surges.
Below normal activity would be consistent with ongoing La Niña conditions through the end of 2022, according to NOAA.
The report was provided as an update to the May 26 outlook, which discussed the possible transition from a La Niña state to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation-Neutral state by the fall.
Now, Columbia University’s International Institute for Climate and Society and the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center expect a continuation of La Niña conditions through the end of the year.
Yap and Palau could be hit by three or four named storms, with one or two turning into typhoons.
Parts of Chuuk north of 6 degrees latitude could see two or three storms, with one or two turning into typhoons. Parts of Chuuk south of 6 degrees latitude, as well as all of Kosrae, Pohnpei and the Northern Islands, could experience one or two named storms, with no typhoons or with a typhoon.
In the Marshall Islands, one or two named storms are expected, with either no typhoon or a typhoon.