Cool Sunday; chance of showers in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin

Saturday’s high temperature in Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 71 degrees. It’s 5 degrees cooler than our average June 4 high, but it feels good.

Much of central Minnesota and parts of northern Minnesota saw highs on Saturday in the 70s, but far southern Minnesota saw many high 60s. Light winds overnight will allow temperatures to drop into the low 1930s in parts of northeastern Minnesota, where a frost advisory was issued from 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday:

Frost advisory (blue) from 1 a.m. to 8 a.m. Sunday

National Weather Service

Here are the details of the freeze notice:

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 447 PM CDT Sat Jun 4, 2022 MNZ010>012-019-051000- /O.NEW.KDLH.FR.Y.0005.220605T0600Z-220605T1300Z/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake – Central St. Louis – Including the towns of International Falls, Ely, Isabella and Hibbing 447 PM CDT Sat June 4, 2022 … FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT 1 AM – 8 AM CDT SUNDAY … * WHAT. .. Low temperatures of 33 to 36 will cause frost to form. * WHERE…Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake and Central St. Louis Counties. This includes the Bois Forte Band Tribal Lands, Lake Vermilion and Lake Nett areas. * WHEN… 1:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. CDT on Sundays. * IMPACTS… Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. *ADDITIONAL DETAILS… Light winds and clear skies will make for a very good radiant cooling night. Sensitive plants should be covered. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES/PREPARATION… Take action now to protect tender plants from the cold.

When the winds are light, temperatures near the ground will be several degrees colder than the official temperatures measured 5 feet above the ground.

Rainy River Basin Flood Update

The green-shaded area in far northern Minnesota on the previous map has a freeze advisory and a flood warning.

A flooded park

Voyageurs National Park has closed the boat ramp at the Rainy Lake Visitor Center due to flooding.

Photo courtesy of Voyageurs National Park

Here are the details of the flood warning:

Flood Statement National Weather Service Duluth MN 408 PM CDT Friday, June 3, 2022 MNC071-137-062100- /O.CON.KDLH.FA.W.0012.000000T0000Z-220606T2100Z/ /00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000och0Z.00000och0Z /Koich0Z.0000 MN-St. Louis MN – 408:00 CDT Friday, June 3, 2022…FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:00 PM CDT MONDAY… *WHAT… Flooding from rain and melting snow is building up continue. Both Namakan and Rainy Lake exceeded levels set during the 2014 peaks. Koochiching. In northeast Minnesota, St. Louis. * WHEN…Until 4:00 p.m. CDT Monday. * IMPACTS… Flooding of lakes, rivers and other low-lying, flood-prone locations is imminent or underway. Several structures are flooded and some bagging operations are continuing. Passages at low tide are flooded with water and may not be passable. Expect many areas of slow moving or standing water. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS… – At 3:55 p.m. CDT, Emergency Management reported major flooding in progress. – Mostly dry weather is expected this week, but increases are likely to continue. Namakan and Kabetogama lakes were at 1122.3 feet as of June 3, 22 inches above the maximum level set in 2014 and 6 inches below the 1916 peak. The level of Namakan Lake is expected to drop 2 to 3 inches between June 3 and June 10. is expected to increase 9 to 10 inches between June 3 and June 10. A peak is unlikely before mid-June over Rainy Lake, regardless of precipitation patterns. – Some places that will experience flooding include… International Falls, Kabetogama, Crane Lake, Kabetogama Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Rainy Lake East, Rainy Lake West, Northwestern Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, Ranier, Ray, Island View, Ericksburg, Johnson Lake and Sand Point Lake. – Http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood http://www.weather.gov/dlh/RainyRiverBasin PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Once levels peak, it will take a few weeks to a month for levels to drop to near-normal summertime levels. Additional precipitation will extend the time it takes for levels to decline.

The Duluth NWS office reported Friday that Rainy Lake had reached a new record high:

Here is a summary of flood conditions in the Rainy River Basin:

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Flooding of the Rainy River Basin

National Weather Service

The NWS Rainy River Basin page has additional flood information.

Journalist Dan Kraker and other MPR News staff have compiled a detailed account of the flooding issues facing locals.

chance of rain

Much of southeastern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin will see showers Sunday evening. A few very patchy showers are also possible elsewhere in southern Minnesota and in central Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Southeast Minnesota could have scattered showers Sunday morning. Forecast models disagree on the chance of rain Sunday afternoon and evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast Model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday noon through Sunday 11 p.m.:

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NAM simulated radar from Sunday noon to Sunday 11 p.m.

NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

You will notice that the main band of rain spreads across southern Minnesota during the afternoon and evening.

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid-Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows a less extensive area of ​​rain in southern Minnesota Sunday afternoon and evening, with additional areas of rain in the rest of Minnesota:

rt0604rad7

HRRR simulated radar from Sunday noon to Sunday 11 p.m.

NOAA, via Tropicaltidbits.com

We’ll see if the forecast models reach a consensus on the chance of rain Sunday afternoon and evening when new runs from the models arrive later Sunday morning.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News Network, and you can see updated weather information on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be mostly in the upper 60s to lower 70s:

rt0605h5

Highs expected on Sunday

National Weather Service

Sunday afternoon wind gusts are expected to be in the range of 10-16 mph in many areas, but gusts could be near 20 mph in far northwest Minnesota:

rt0605g5

Sunday 1 p.m. expect gusty winds

National Weather Service

Forecast gusts of wind are in knots, with 14 knots equaling 16.1 mph.

Back to temperatures, highs for the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be around 70 on Monday, followed by highs in the lower 70s Tuesday through Friday.

Temperatures may be a little cooler than normal next weekend through the following week. Warmer temperatures are possible in the second half of June. The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a slight trend of above normal temperatures in the southeastern half of Minnesota and much of Wisconsin from June 18 to July 1:

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Temperature forecast from June 18 to July 1

NWS Climate Prediction Center

We’ll see if it works.

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities’ average temperature in May (that’s the average of all daily high and low temperatures) was 1.5 degrees warmer than normal. May was the first warmer than normal month in the Twin Cities since December. Last year we had 10 consecutive warmer than normal months in the Twin Cities (March to December).

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35am, 9:35am and 4:39pm every Saturday and Sunday.

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