After a record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, there is one more reason to revisit and review the list of storm names for the 2021 season.
Colorado State University (CSU), a preeminent institution for hurricane forecasting despite its landlocked location, updated its forecast on July 8, keeping its outlook more active than usual.
Highlighting this above average season is a higher than normal risk for a landing on the east coast of the United States and a storm near the New Jersey coast.
According to the July Update, originally released on April 8, there is a 16-18% chance that a named storm will hit the Jersey Shore during the remainder of the season, with a 6-7% risk of hurricane and 1% risk of a major hurricane.
Zooming in across the entire east coast, there is a 68% chance that a major hurricane, Category three, four or five, will make landfall between Maine and Florida, higher than the average of 52%.
For the 2021 season, 20 named storms are now planned, of which nine become hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends on November 30. However, for the seventh year in a row, there was a named storm before the official start of the hurricane season when subtropical storm Ana developed in mid-May, passing near Bermuda.
2020 has been an active year for New Jersey when it comes to tropical systems. Tropical Storm Fay in July and Tropical Storm Isaias in August were both tropical storms when they made landfall. Eight hurricanes are forecast, three of them reaching major hurricane status. The 1981 to 2010 average was 12.1 named storms, with 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Story released its hurricane forecast on May 20. Their forecast also shows a possibly above-average season.