Joe Mancinik, 34, from DeLand, is known online by another name: “The bearded meteorologist. ”
On his popular Facebook page, Mancinik digs into local weather conditions in an affable and straightforward manner. People have noticed it.
He started less than a year ago and his page now has over 5,000 subscribers. His most popular videos collect thousands of views.
“The Bearded Weatherman makes some of the most accurate forecasts I’ve come across in any form of media, whether it’s news networks or social media,” one fan wrote in a review. “His forecasts are so accurate that they are an integral part of my morning routine when planning and starting my day.”
Mancinik said fans seem to appreciate his “real person.” Even its name hints at informality.
“Well, I thought, there’s a lot of bearded stuff out there, right?” Why don’t we have a bearded meteorologist? And, also the fact that no one on TV can have facial hair, in general – that’s a way to differentiate myself, ”added Mancinik.
Like others who came of age during the Great Recession, Mancinik took non-traditional routes to get to where he is now: by day, a waiter at an Ormond Beach restaurant; at night (and whenever he gets the chance), a popular amateur meteorologist live.
“I was a meteorologist in the navy… in college, I was an English major,” Mancinik said. “Without the traditional academic training, it kind of kept me from getting into meteorology as a full-time profession.”
A mentor in the Air Force – a crop pilot with the same name and birthday as Mancinik’s – encouraged Mancinik to qualify as a forecaster. During long shifts, while others were entertained, Mancinik read books on weather conditions.
“There will be a lot of downtime when we’re just on the lookout,” Mancinik said. “A lot of guys were going to play on Facebook or their fantasy football team, but I would have just opened the manual. Because I wanted to know: why did this happen? “
After seeing other amateur weather pages on Facebook, Mancinik was inspired. Originally, he only shared his information with friends, who encouraged him to create his own weather page.
Mancinik has stepped up its online weather forecast for the 2020 hurricane season.
“I think I can bring something to the table. So I just said, why not? You know, people, my friends, were cheering me on, ”he said.
There was an immediate response.
“I was really shocked by any kind of response,” Mancinik said with a laugh. “I just thought, well, maybe a few of my Facebook friends will watch it. But he’s developed quite a bit of success and it’s been a very busy hurricane season last season.
With a mic and webcam, and a host of resources he found through his training and his own passion, Mancinik began broadcasting live weather forecasts.
The videos are a mix of Mancinik’s down-to-earth weather explanations and his own forecast.
Predicting the weather is part of detective work, part of an exercise in humility, he said.
“It’s detective work; it’s an investigation, ”Mancinik said. “At first, of course, I’m wrong, and then I’m often wrong.”
Investigating these mistakes is how you learn, Mancinik said.
“Becoming a better forecaster is learning from your mistakes. Make a mistake and investigate really critically, and what are the factors at play that changed the forecast is how to learn, ”he said.
Time is a huge, complicated system, Mancinik said – and that’s where fun and humility come in.
“At the end of the day, it’s like what Jeff Goldblum says in Jurassic Park – a butterfly flaps its wings and it’s raining in Central Park. These little disruptions are going to disrupt the models, and that’s where you get errors, ”Mancinik said. “It is humility that must come… There must always be humility in front of it. I mean, at the end of the day, the weather is, to some extent, ultimately unpredictable, isn’t it?
But putting extremely complicated systems in terms that anyone can understand is part of his passion.
“It’s all relationships, you know, it’s like there’s a relationship between temperature and air pressure. So it’s like finding that relationship for people and how they communicate, how they interpret and how they absorb knowledge and interpret it, ”Mancinik said.
The attention that has come from people across the United States and the Caribbean has been gratifying, he said.
“It’s like a small community. People who love the weather and are a bit of a geek like me, ”Mancinik said.
Facebook was a natural fit for this type of production, he said.
“There are a lot of types of people who come to these videos and interact,” Mancinik said. “That’s what I was hoping for too, it was the creative space on Facebook, where people from different backgrounds and maybe political beliefs have a space to interact without having to deal with it all, without having to bring it all. great medium: it is apolitical and everyone has to face it.
Mancinik encouraged others to share their hobbies and passions.
“I strongly encourage someone with a passion to follow him,” Mancinik said. “For a while, I kind of let my passion wither away, and I didn’t really care. And by committing to it, my life just got better. I feel more that I am doing something right, a service to people.
Bearded Weatherman: What should we do now?
And what predictions does he have for our next hurricane season?
“Well, Colorado State University has an outlook every year, and they’re forecasting an above average hurricane season. But the the averages have changed, because we’ve had more storms on average over the past 30 years, ”Mancinik said.
“What should you do?” Get those supplies now, ”Manicik said in a May 21 video. “You watch my content, or similar content, on Facebook and YouTube, so you sometimes know in advance when to expect. I’m saying now – early June, mid-June, we might expect something here in Florida or in the Southeast. “
“It’s about time. Get ready now,” Mancinik told his viewers.