Tropical Storm Peter will pass over northeastern Caribbean

Tropical Storm Peter, one of three named storms that has formed in recent days, is expected to bring up to three inches of rain to parts of the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, through Tuesday, but is not expected to affect directly to the United States. , forecasters said.

In late Monday afternoon, the storm was about 110 miles northeast of northern Leeward Islands and was moving west-northwest at 12 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm is expected to weaken in the coming days.

Peter, the 16th named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Sunday, the same day Tropical Storm Rose formed off the west coast of Africa. Tropical Storm Odette, which sprang to life off the mid-Atlantic coast on Friday, was quickly downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone.

“We’re lucky right now that Rose and Peter have no direct impact on the United States,” Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist at the hurricane center, said Monday. But he added that it was too early to say if the storm swells would reach the United States.

Meteorologists had to contend with several dizzying months as the onset of the peak of the hurricane season – from August to November – produced a rapid succession of named storms, causing storms, floods and destructive winds in some. parts of the United States and the Caribbean.

Hurricane Nicholas made landfall on September 14 along the Texas Gulf Coast, triggering heavy rains in parts of Louisiana that had been hit two weeks earlier by Hurricane Ida, which then caused flooding fatalities in the New York area.

Tropical Storm Mindy hit the Florida Panhandle on September 8, just hours after it formed in the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, a powerful Hurricane Larry swept across the Atlantic.

In mid-August, Tropical Storm Fred made landfall in the Florida panhandle and Hurricane Grace struck Haiti and Mexico. Tropical Storm Henri cut power and brought record precipitation to the northeastern United States on August 22.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming increasingly evident. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time and a higher incidence of more powerful storms. But the total number of storms could drop, as factors like stronger wind shear could prevent weaker storms from forming.

Hurricanes also get wetter due to increased water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested that storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced much more rain than they would have without the human effects on the climate. Rising sea levels also contribute to increased storm surges, the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

A major United Nations climate report released in August warned that countries have delayed cutting fossil fuel emissions for so long that they can no longer prevent global warming from intensifying over the next 30 years, resulting in more frequent and potentially fatal heat waves and severe droughts. Tropical cyclones have likely become more intense over the past 40 years, according to the report, a change that cannot be explained by natural variability alone.

Ana became the first named storm of the season on May 22, making it the seventh consecutive year that a named storm has developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the hurricane season on June 1.

In May, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, of which six to 10 would be hurricanes and three to five major Category 3 or more hurricanes in the Atlantic. In early August, in an update to the mid-season forecast, scientists continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season would be above average, suggesting a busy end to the season.

NOAA updated its forecast on August 4, forecasting 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season on November 30. Peter is the 16th named storm of 2021.

“We are still at the peak of the season,” Feltgen said on Monday. “We still have a good two and a half months left. We have a long way to go, so stay prepared.

Last year there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and use Greek letters.

It was the highest number of storms on record, exceeding 28 in 2005, and included the second highest number of hurricanes on record.

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