Weather in New York: A warmer than normal winter? More intense snowstorms? Forecasters release latest forecast

STATEN ISLAND, NY – Staten Island could experience warmer than normal temperatures this winter, while precipitation levels are expected to be around average, forecasters said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) seasonal outlook, released late last week, gives New York a 40% to 50% chance of higher temperatures than typically seen between December and February. .

The agency said the La Niña weather pattern that fueled record-breaking hurricane seasons is expected to continue this winter, though its odds dissipate from 86% to around 60% during the winter months.

La Niña, which translates from Spanish to “little girl,” occurs when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are colder than normal. Below average temperatures affect weather patterns around the world.

Typically, La Niña brings below normal temperatures to the northern parts of the United States, while the south experiences above normal temperatures.

Precipitation forecast for December, January and February, released August 18, 2022 by NOAA’s Extended Forecast Branch.

This year, NOAA said New York City will see average precipitation levels, although parts of western New York are likely to receive above-average precipitation.

Warmer winters, however, bring the possibility of more intense snowstorms, Advance/ previously reported.

Similar to warmer temperatures acting as fuel for summer storms to bring heavy precipitation, above average winter temperatures can allow moisture to be stored in the atmosphere and cause intense precipitation.

Temperatures can therefore be slightly warmer than normal – but still below zero – and help create massive storms.

A recent analysis found that winter in the United States is warming faster than any other season, with the northeastern United States experiencing some of the most significant changes since 1970. A separate study by the American Geophysical Union has revealed that without mitigating the effects of climate change, winter weather could last less than two months by 2100.

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